Electrical automobile maker Rivian Automotive is making an attempt to scale up its Illinois manufacturing facility to end up 50,000 automobiles this 12 months, however Cox Automotive estimates first-quarter deliveries of simply 8,145 models, for a 1.1 p.c achieve over the earlier quarter.

Luxurious EV maker Lucid Motors is rising at a sooner clip, however Cox tasks deliveries of 1,344 automobiles within the January to March interval. That represents a 27 p.c enhance vs. fourth-quarter 2022, nevertheless it’s a sluggish begin for Lucid to satisfy its 2023 steering of 14,000 Air sedans.

The 2 startups are slicing prices and shedding employees a 12 months and a half after their first deliveries in fall 2021. Each have seen their inventory costs drop by about 70 p.c within the final 12 months.

Rivian says it has sufficient demand, however has been unable to unravel manufacturing points at its Illinois plant, which has a 150,000-unit annual capability. Lucid says it wants to boost model consciousness to develop its order backlog.

In the meantime, EV chief Tesla has been capable of minimize costs, leverage the brand new $7,500 EV tax credit score and submit report numbers. Cox estimates U.S. first-quarter deliveries at 180,993 automobiles for Tesla, a 38 p.c enhance over the earlier quarter and a 40 p.c enchancment from first-quarter 2022.

“Tesla, which lowered costs within the first quarter to spark demand, is forecast to submit stable gross sales beneficial properties and surpass market share of 5 p.c for the primary time,” Cox stated in its first-quarter gross sales forecast. “Tesla would be the prime luxury-vehicle vendor within the U.S. in Q1, by far, with gross sales greater than double that of BMW or Mercedes.”

Rivian’s projected market share of 0.2 p.c for the primary quarter is up from 0.1 p.c a 12 months earlier, Cox stated. Lucid’s share is projected to be below 0.1 p.c. Each automakers are anticipated to report gross sales in April.